Frequently-asked questions

• Do studies show that Columbia River salmon will go extinct by 2017?

  This prediction comes from a 2001 report entitled “Doomsday Clock,” commissioned by Trout Unlimited. It is based on limited and outdated data. The report looked at seven of the 28 populations of returning adult fish from one of the seven ESA-listed fish in the Columbia River Basin – Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon. It concluded that two of those populations would be functionally extinct by 2007.

  Since 1990, these two populations have been stable or on an upward trend. In fact, the species of SR spring/summer Chinook as a whole also is on an upward trend. The most recent 4-year average return of natural-origin (wild) Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon was over 12,000 adults – compared to approximately 5,000 natural-origin adults at the time of listing.

  It should also be noted that the other three listed Snake River stocks – steelhead, sockeye and fall chinook – are improving at a much steeper rate. More than 5,600 fall chinook redds were counted in the Snake River and its tributaries in 2010 – compared to 1,910 in 2009. The Snake River sockeye hatchery program has increased the number of sockeye returning to their spawning grounds high in Idaho’s Sawtooth mountains from fewer than 10 in the early 1990s to 1,355 in 2010. With aggressive actions to improve their habitat and survival, that trend is likely to continue.

  

• Is it true that NOAA Fisheries' analysis shows that the status of the fish is declining since the last analysis for the 2008 FCRPS BiOp?

  NOAA analyzes several factors to assess the status of the fish, including number of returning adult fish (or abundance), productivity of returning adults and population growth rate. The new analysis updated these results through 2008 for the species and populations for which data were available. The results showed abundance has increased at the same time that, for some populations, productivity has declined. Biologists expect this inverse relationship. In fact, reductions in productivity follow high abundance years, in part because of competition for spawning habitat – there is only so much habitat that the fish can use. This is one reason why fish returns are cyclic. The results were well within ranges of variation expected in the BiOp.

  Since the analysis went only through 2008, NOAA noted that it doesn’t include the many changes that have taken place since – and often because of – the new BiOp. These include reductions in harvest rates, passage improvements and operations at the dams, and very favorable ocean conditions in 2008.

  In addition, the region is two years into a 10-year effort under the BiOp and the Columbia Basin Fish Accords to implement one of the largest habitat restoration projects ever conducted. In 2009 alone, the Action Agencies re-opened 264 miles of spawning and rearing habitat that human-made barriers had closed to fish for decades.

• Do the FCRPS dams kill 90 percent of juvenile salmon on the way to the ocean?

  No. The 90-percent figure may be a misinterpretation of the Incidental Take Statement (ITS) in NOAA Fisheries’ 2008 FCRPS Biological Opinion.¹

  In 2010 NOAA Science Center estimated survival for migrating juvenile salmon through all eight dams and reservoirs on the lower Snake and Columbia Rivers at 55 percent for Snake River spring/summer Chinook and 62 percent for Snake River steelhead.²

  And even in free-flowing rivers, natural fish mortality is very high. Fish face threats from predation in the river and ocean, habitat degradation, and fishing. For every 5,000 salmon eggs laid, two adult fish will return to spawn three to four years later. Scientists measured 30 percent mortality for hatchery fish released upstream of Lower Granite Dam in the 700 kilometers of free flowing river before they reach the dam.

  With highly effective fish passage facilities at all of the FCRPS dams, many are likely meeting the BiOp performance standards of 96 percent average per-dam survival for spring migrating fish and 93 percent for summer migrants. Surface passage structures are also helping to reduce the time it takes the Snake River steelhead to travel through all the dams and reservoirs and reach the estuary. NOAA scientists estimate that total travel time has been by 5 days since all the new surface passage routes were installed. Scientists believe that the timing of juvenile fish reaching the estuary is critical to their health and survival.

  ¹The ITS includes a 90-percent mortality estimate for migrating juveniles under very limited, poor water conditions. In low runoff years (about once in every five years based on modeling of a 70-year water record) though, spill and flow operations are limited because there is limited water in the rivers. To protect the fish in these conditions, the Corps of Engineers collects them at certain upstream dams and barges them to below Bonneville Dam. The 90 percent estimate in the ITS is based on experience in 2001, the most recent very poor water year. Most of the migrating fish were transported around the dams. The remaining few fish (about 4 percent) left in the river suffered relatively high predation from birds and fish, and more significant losses than would have occurred in a normal water year or if all the fish had been left inriver to migrate. In moderate to high runoff years, the ITS estimates that average mortality rates would be about 55–65 percent for Snake River steelhead and sockeye salmon, about 40–45 percent for Snake River spring/summer Chinook salmon, and about 44.6–81.3 percent for Snake River fall Chinook.

  ²NOAA Science Center, Survival Estimates for Passage of Spring Migrating Juvenile Salmonids through Snake and Columbia River Dams and Reservoirs 2010; Dec. 2010.

• What percentage of juvenile fish go through the turbines when they pass the dams?

  With the addition of highly effective fish passage and fish guidance structures in recent years, very few juvenile fish go through the turbines as they pass FCRPS dams on their way to the ocean. Today turbine passage ranges from an average of 4 - 12 percent³, depending on the dam and the species of fish.

  Studies estimate survival through the FCRPS turbine routes at 80 and 90 percent, again depending on the dam and species of fish.

  ³The range is 1.0-19.5 percent for yearling Chinook salmon, 0.5-20.1 percent for steelhead, and 0.7-25.2 percent for subyearling Chinook salmon.

• Were there once annual salmon runs of 30 million fish in the Columbia River Basin?

  A two-year review of historic salmon numbers by the Northwest Power and Conservation Council examined all estimates on record and concluded that run sizes ranged from 10 to 16 million fish prior to development. This figure is widely accepted and cited in the literature as the most accurate figure. However, the analysis notes that run sizes have always fluctuated widely, depending on river and ocean conditions.

  One method for calculating historic run sizes was the calculation of an estimated run size based on the assumption that fish wheels caught a certain percentage of the run. Using this method, one early estimate came up with a figure of about 35 million fish. The Council’s analysis found that the figure was not credible because assumptions of the number of fish caught in fish wheels was unrealistic.

• Do the Snake River dams block salmon access to pristine high-elevation spawning habitat in Idaho and Oregon?

  The four Snake River dams do not block fish passage. All four dams have highly effective adult fish passage facilities. Survival of adult fish returning to spawn is typically 98 percent or better per dam -- comparable to survival in a similar stretch of natural river.

• Is it true that the BiOp ignores climate change and its potential effects on salmon and steelhead?

  No. The BiOp recognizes predictions from independent science boards that air temperatures have risen in the Pacific Northwest and that they will continue to rise by .1°-.6°C every decade over the next century. The BiOp uses those scientists’ recommendations to develop a number of actions. Cold water releases from upstream reservoirs help cool water during the summer. Planting and revegetation can help provide shade. Reestablishing natural stream channels that meander around woody debris provides cool water refuges during the heat of summer. Because they can help keep water cool and clean, these projects are an important hedge against the longer term effects of climate change.

• Is it true that one more fish each year returning to the spawning grounds would meet the jeopardy standard in the 2008 FCRPS BiOp?

  "One more fish than last year" would not meet the legal standard. NOAA Fisheries looked at much more than simply counting fish. Key factors included number of returning adults, productivity of returning adults and population growth rate. No single metric, by itself, can fully describe the status of a given species.

• Is the FCRPS BiOp supported by those in the region?

  The BiOp is supported by 3 states, 5 tribes, river users and electricity customers.

• Can the output of the four lower Snake River dams be replaced with emissions-free power sources?

  The Northwest Power and Conservation Council found that replacing the power benefits of the four lower Snake River dams would increase carbon emissions by three million tons per year and require that 437 average megawatts of new natural gas-fired power plants be built.⁴ For more information on the power benefits of the four lower Snake River dams, see this Bonneville Power Administration fact sheet.

  ⁴Northwest Power and Conservation Council, Sixth Northwest Power Plan; Feb. 2010; Chapter 10, pages 28-31.

• Did the condition of Columbia Basin salmon cause the cessation of fishing that happened off the West Coast of California in 2008 and 2009?

  Columbia River and Snake River salmon enter the ocean at the northern tip of Oregon. Many of them migrate north toward Vancouver Island and Alaskan coastal waters, while some remain on the Washington/Oregon coast. Thus, they have virtually no effect on the fishing economy off the coast of California. The West Coast fishing crisis is the result of very low numbers of fall chinook from the Sacramento River in California.

• Do endangered orcas depend on Columbia River chinook salmon for food?

  Orcas spend about half the year far out at sea, where scientists do not know what they are eating. In the summer, when they are off the West Coast of the U.S. and Canada, though, NOAA studies have found that more than 90 percent of their diet is chinook salmon from the Fraser River in British Columbia. The range of the Columbia River Chinook is not fully known either. Once they travel from the mouth of the Columbia to Alaska⁵, the salmon swim out to sea for one to five years. Thus, it is not clear to what extent, if any, southern resident orca pods and Columbia River chinook salmon overlap in space and time.

  ⁵Pacific Ocean Shelf Tracking project, Kintama Research.

• Does the BiOp roll back spill at the dams for fish that the Court has ordered?

  Spill is a longstanding and fundamental part of the federal strategy to protect fish. For years, federal hydro operators have spilled water at all eight lower Snake and Columbia dams during the fish passage season. Since 2005, we have spilled roughly 30 to 60 percent of the river 24 hours a day from early April through the end of August.

  Most of the spill that we are doing under the court order is outlined by the BiOp. In the two places where we’re proposing something different, we have committed to consult with the region each year and look at the biological factors before we change the operation.

• Do US taxpayers fund the Columbia Basin salmon program?

  Most of the funding for Columbia Basin salmon restoration comes Bonneville Power Administration’s power sales customers, the publicly-owned utilities in the Pacific Northwest.